Overview of Consumer Sentiment

Recent data indicates a significant decline in consumer confidence, with feelings about both current and future financial conditions waning. This marks the lowest levels of optimism seen since April 2020, correlating closely with increasing tariffs and persistent job market concerns.

Consumer Confidence Index Trends

The Consumer Confidence Index, reported by the Conference Board, dropped to 86. This represents a decrease of 7.9 points from the previous month and is below the Dow Jones forecast of 87.7. Notably, this figure is the lowest recorded in nearly five years.

Future Expectations Plummet

Far more alarming is the waning outlook for the coming months, as the expectations index, which gauges sentiment regarding the next six months, plummeted to 54.4—a decline of 12.5 points. This is the lowest since October 2011, suggesting a potential recession.

Stephanie Guichard, the board’s senior economist for global indicators, stated, “The three expectation components—business conditions, employment prospects, and future income—all deteriorated sharply, reflecting pervasive pessimism about the future.”

Employment Sentiments

The report revealed that 32.1% of respondents expect job losses in the upcoming six months, nearing levels observed in April 2009, during the height of the Great Recession. Moreover, the perceived availability of jobs has shifted, with only 31.7% believing jobs are “plentiful,” down from 33.6% just a month earlier.

Stock Market and Inflation Projections

Market expectations are equally bleak, with 48.5% of consumers anticipating lower stock prices over the next year, the most negative outlook since October 2011. Inflation expectations also surged to 7% for the coming year, a high not seen since November 2022.

Causes of Decline: Tariffs and Recession Fears

Rising tariffs have emerged as a critical driver of pessimism, with respondents expressing the greatest concerns about their economic impact to date. Concurrently, expectations for a recession reached a two-year peak as economic anxieties mount.

Job Market Statistics

On a related note, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported a significant decrease in job postings in March, which fell to the lowest figures since September 2024. The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey indicated that job openings dropped to 7.19 million from 7.48 million in February, falling below Wall Street’s expectations.

• Government job postings declined by 59,000 amid efforts to streamline the federal workforce.
• Transportation, warehousing, and utilities saw a similar reduction of 59,000 positions.
• While hiring rates remained stable, layoffs saw a slight decrease of 222,000.

Conclusion

The data points to a concerning trend in consumer confidence and the job market, fueled by rising tariffs and economic uncertainties. As these factors continue to evolve, monitoring consumer sentiment will be essential for forecasting economic stability.