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Can ‘Kneecap’ Make It to the Oscars?

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Can 'kneecap' Make It To The Oscars?

It may still be early days in the awards race, but when it comes to the actual number of gongs won so far, a low-budget Irish-language comedy biopic about a rowdy Belfast rap trio can count itself among the leading pack of films.

“Kneecap,” a wild and semi-autobiographical tale about the formation of the band of the same name which features proud use of the local language and frequent run-ins with the authorities, paramilitary groups and hard drugs, recently dominated the British Independent Film Awards (the U.K.’s scrappier, scruffier distant cousin of the BAFTAs).

On Dec. 8, it won the top prize of best British independent film, plus debut screenwriter for writer/director Rich Peppiatt and joint lead awards for Kneecap bandmates Liam Óg Ó Hannaidh, Naoise Ó Cairealláin and JJ Ó Dochartaigh, who all play themselves (Michael Fassbender, meanwhile, has a supporting role). These awards join the four BIFA craft honors it had already won, plus the NEXT audience award in Sundance following its premiere in January and three honors on home soil at the Galway Film Festival.

But for all its success in 2024, the question remains whether “Kneecap” — which Sony Pictures Classics acquired in Sundance — has a cat’s chance in hell of keeping the party going into the new year once the awards big dogs start roaring to life.

When it comes to the BAFTAs, a thought-to-be decent (but entirely unquantified) level of crossover among BIFA voters could offer a small indicator of potential success.

In 2018, “The Favourite” won 10 out of 13 BIFA nominations (“Kneecap” landed seven out of 14) and followed up with 12 BAFTA nominations (and seven wins) the following year. But this was obviously a much bigger, Searchlight-backed feature fronted by Olivia Colman. A perhaps better example is the British indie “After Love,” which turned nine BIFA nominations and six wins into four BAFTA nominations in 2021, with Joanna Scanlan shocking even herself by winning best actress.

But the BAFTAs’ attempts to mirror the Oscars has often — barring the odd Scanlan-style exception — seen it accused of treating British indies much like second class citizens in the main categories (there was polite uproar earlier this year when BIFA favorite  “All of Us Strangers” didn’t land a best film nomination).

Indeed, the best British independent film award win by “Kneecap” by no means comes close to even guaranteeing it one of the five slots for the best film BAFTA. Only a small number of BIFA top prize-winning films have even been nominated in that category, and just two — “Slumdog Millionaire” and “The King’s Speech” — have gone on to claim BAFTA’s biggest prize.

One voter across both suggests that the BIFAs serve as a particularly good “bellwether” for BAFTA’s outstanding debut by a British writer, director or producer, having predicted the wins for “Earth Mama” earlier this year and “Aftersun” in 2023. Outstanding British film — where there are 10 slots — would also seem a decent bet for “Kneecap” to get a nomination. And, of course, there’s the film not in the English language category.

It’s language that could — and many say should — take “Kneecap” into the Oscars.

The film was the very first submission for the international film category in early August (Ireland beat Austria, which submitted “The Devil’s Bath” the same day, by a matter of minutes). The film has flirted with various prediction lists amid a group of potential nominees including “Dahomey” (Senegal), “The Seed of the Sacred Fig” (Germany), “I’m Still Here” (Brazil) and “The Girl With the Needle” (Denmark).

The constant, towering presence — and the film that now seems the one to beat across several categories — is “Emilia Perez,” which has a far lower critical rating than “Kneecap” but is getting the full weight of Netflix’s lavish five-star campaign treatment. (“Emilia Perez” is also amassing awards along the way — five at the recent European film awards, including best film).

One insider — who’s been quietly lobbying for “Kneecap” among international voters — says that the core message of the film, which is all about the importance of preserving mother tongues, should alone make it a shoo-in for the international film award, “at least in a fair world.”

But the world isn’t fair. Just a day after cleaning up at the BIFAs, “Kneecap” failed to land a Golden Globes nomination in a foreign language category with six spaces as compared to the Academy’s five (“Emilia Perez,” meanwhile, emerged as the overall frontrunner, with 10 nominations). Pundits may note that the foreign language crossover with the Oscars is usually only with two or three films, so it’s far from a done deal as yet.

But there’s another — entirely not film-related — issue that could also play a role.

The Kneecap trio are extremely politically outspoken, especially when it comes to Gaza, and have been loudly condemning Israel’s ongoing military assault at every opportunity. They’ve joined demonstrations in Sundance and beamed messages onto buildings in Ireland from the back of their armored police van (which is usually seen with Palestinian flags fitted to either side). Earlier in the year, insiders suggested that this could be a problem when it came to voters, especially those in the U.S., but there’s now a belief among some that it could work the other way.

The documentary “No Other Land,” about resistance against Israel occupation in the West Bank and made by a collective of Israeli and Palestinian activists, is on an awards roll, recently claiming honors from the Gothams, the National Board of Review, the New York Film Critics Circle, the European Film Awards and many others. Few would now bet against it getting an Oscar nomination.

Back in Berlin, where “No Other Land” won two top documentary prizes following its world premiere, its Israeli co-director Yuval Abraham condemned Israeli “apartheid” on stage, while his Palestinian collaborator Basel Adra spoke out about “the tens of thousands of my people being slaughtered and massacred by Israel in Gaza.” Both acceptance speeches were later condemned as being “antisemitic” by several German politicians, including the mayor of Berlin, sparking international uproar on both sides of the debate.

10 months on from this outcry, “No Other Land” now appears to be the documentary du jour. “Kneecap” is obviously a very different film and the bandmates’ comments have been stronger and more sustained, but the success of “No Other Land” could offer a clue as to if and how their outspoken political stance will impact its awards campaign.

But away from hot-button political topics and on a slightly more frivolous tip, those merely wanting to give the Oscars an un-stuffy shot in the arm may also want to see “Kneecap” at the ceremony.

The band have turned up to every film event and red carpet to date wearing their trademark tracksuits and trainers combination (or, in the case of JJ Ó Dochartaigh, in an Irish tri-coloured balaclava). Speaking to Variety in Galway, they suggested that they would wear “black tracksuits with white ties” if they made it to the Academy Awards, and would try to bring their police van to L.A. (as they did to Sundance).

At the BIFA ceremony, Dochartaigh celebrated the win on stage by baring his backside to the audience.

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